Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
